![]() On all games since 1978: 0.252 * Defense + 0.696 * Quarterback + 0.25 * Game Script. Perhaps something like Game Scripts? That’s food for another day, but I did run a few regressions, with no particularly interesting results. That means a whole lot more goes into how many passing yards a player will have against a team than the average production of the player and the team. One other note: The R^2 was 0.14 on the original equation, which is pretty low. I also ran the numbers just since 2008, and the effect flipped, with the quarterback being responsible for 72.1% of the passing yards in a game. That jumps it from 73.4% quarterback to 75.1% quarterback. The best-fit formula became:Ġ.748 * Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards + 0.247 * Era-Adjusted Expected Pass Yards allowed by the Defense Then I did the same thing but used only seasons since 2000. For starters, the 60/40 breakdown lumps together all teams regardless of changes in quarterback play: if we restricted that study to all games with the same quarterback, I suspect the numbers would diverge even more. That’s a bit higher than the 60/40 breakdown from before, but not entirely unexpected. Therefore, we project Brees at 58 yards above average, which is … Continue reading Put Brees against a defense that allows 300 yards per game through the air, and his projection bumps up to 315 yards. The defense is 30 yards better than average, and -30 * 26.6% is -8 yards. Brees is 90 yards above average, and 90 * 73.4% is 66 yards. If he faces a team that allows 200 yards per game passing, this formula would project Brees to throw for 288 yards. Let’s say we think Drew Brees is a 320-yards-per-game passer in an environment where the average team throws for 230 yards. In other words, 73% of the amount of passing yards in the game can be attributed to the quarterback (and his offensive line, wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs), and 27% to the defense. The quarterback variable is 2.76 times as large as the defense variable. The key number in that equation isn’t even in the equation: the key number is the ratio between the two coefficients. My output was the actual number of passing yards produced in that game.īelow is the best-fit equation, after I forced the constant to be zero, since we don’t care what the constant is in this regression, we just want to understand the ratio between the two variables.:Ġ.704 * Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards + 0.255 * Era-Adjusted Expected Pass Yards allowed by the Defense ![]() I also calculated the “Expected Passing Yards Allowed” by his opponent in each game, based upon the opponent’s average yards allowed total in their other 14 games.ģ) I then subtracted the league average from the Expected Passing Yards and Expected Passing Yards Allowed, to come up with era-adjusted numbers.Ĥ) I performed a regression analysis using Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards and Era-Adjusted Expected Passing Yards Allowed as my inputs. This number, which is different for each quarterback in each game, is the “Expected Passing Yards” for each quarterback in each game. I also calculated, for his opponent, that team’s average passing yards allowed per game in their first 15 games of the season.Ģ) I then calculated the number of passing yards averaged by each quarterback in his games that season excluding the game in question. Then, I looked at the number of passing yards averaged by each quarterback during that season, excluding the final game of every year. Here’s the fine print:ġ) I limited my study to all quarterbacks since 1978 who started at least 14 games for one team. When Team A plays Team B, how many passing yards should we expect? As we all know, Team A can look very different when it has Dan Orlovsky instead of Peyton Manning, so I instead chose to look at Quarterback A against Team B. ![]() I was wondering the same thing about passing yards. In other words, offense and defense both matter, but offense tends to matter more. In May, I wrote that the scoring team is responsible for roughly 60% of the points it scores, while the opponent is responsible for 40% of those points. Spoiler: the quarterback plays a big role in passing yards.
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